Thu, Mar 8, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 116 | 110 | 07 | 233 |
| BOS | 210 | 07 | 110 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Nolan Patrick, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 9:14BOSRiley NashAssists: David Pastrnak, Kevan Miller · Wrap-around, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 19:34BOSBrian GiontaAssists: Zdeno Chara, Tommy Wingels · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 7:21PHIJori LehteraSHAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 19:38BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:29BOSKevan Miller: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 6:05PHIJori Lehtera: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:45BOSBrad Marchand: Clipping2 min
- P2 0:30BOSTorey Krug: Holding2 min
- P2 6:28PHIOskar Lindblom: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:30PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:21BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Patrick won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Lindblom – Patrick8:34
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Filppula – Simmonds – Raffl8:49
xG 0.22–0.16 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Read – Laughton4:40
xG 0.07–0.09 (45%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny8:26
xG 0.21–0.52 (28%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gostisbehere – Hagg2:07
xG 0.01–0.18 (5%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hagg13:25
xG 0.48–0.69 (41%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov12:08
xG 0.42–0.75 (36%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Nash – Pastrnak10:54
xG 0.97–0.57 (63%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Nash – Krejci – DeBrusk4:04
xG 0.34–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Krejci – Heinen4:41
xG 0.42–0.16 (73%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Wingels – DeBrusk3:40
xG 0.09–0.02 (79%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo11:51
xG 1.29–0.36 (78%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Miller – Grzelcyk12:12
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- McQuaid – Krug11:38
xG 0.16–0.47 (25%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).