Thu, Mar 8, 2018·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Colorado Avalanche 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 25 | 010 | 210 | 02 | 427 |
| CBJ | 110 | 314 | 019 | 11 | 544 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:55COLTyson BarrieAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 7:07COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 7:49CBJBoone JennerAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 1:19CBJThomas VanekAssists: Boone Jenner, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- P2 12:36CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Seth Jones, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 15:52CBJThomas VanekAssists: Seth Jones, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 13:26COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 16:42COLCarl SoderbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
- OT 0:59CBJSeth JonesGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.22 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:33CBJJack Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:46CBJSeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:45COLGabriel Bourque: Holding2 min
- P2 4:35COLNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:33COLSamuel Girard: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:43COLTyson Jost: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:50COLNikita Zadorov: Boarding2 min
- P3 11:36CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Rantanen – Jost11:01
xG 1.10–0.92 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Bourque – Toninato – Andrighetto3:50
xG 0.22–0.04 (83%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Kerfoot – Compher9:49
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:21
xG 0.07–0.35 (17%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Girard6:53
xG 1.01–0.34 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Zadorov – Girard3:31
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Siemens – Lindholm4:34
xG 0.08–0.22 (26%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Jenner – Wennberg8:12
xG 1.25–0.04 (97%)attempts 16–1goals 3–0
- Dubinsky – Letestu – Calvert8:08
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois7:24
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Milano10:04
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Murray14:04
xG 1.35–0.53 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Cole – Savard13:39
xG 0.68–0.30 (70%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Jones – Werenski14:07
xG 1.12–0.94 (54%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).