Thu, Mar 8, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Detroit Red Wings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 111 | 314 | 07 | 432 |
| DET | 09 | 012 | 07 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24VGKAlex TuchGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 10:40VGKCody EakinSHAssists: William Karlsson · Snap, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 17:48VGKCody EakinAssists: Tomas Nosek, Brad Hunt · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 18:38VGKAlex TuchAssists: Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:43VGKColin Miller: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:27DETEvgeny Svechnikov: Holding2 min
- P2 1:45DETNiklas Kronwall: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:39VGKTomas Tatar: Interference2 min
- P2 19:00DETLuke Witkowski: Interference2 min
- P3 5:52VGKTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:07DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Haula – Hyka11:18
xG 0.74–0.37 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Reaves – Bellemare – Nosek6:54
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Eakin – Carpenter – Tuch10:23
xG 0.42–0.54 (44%)attempts 5–14goals 2–0
- Tatar – Karlsson – Marchessault11:02
xG 0.23–0.65 (26%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Miller13:53
xG 1.13–0.68 (62%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Engelland – McNabb2:04
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Merrill – Hunt10:25
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 7–12goals 2–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFrk – Mantha – Larkin4:37
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Athanasiou – Svechnikov2:34
xG 0.04–0.06 (41%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi9:44
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Mantha – Larkin – Svechnikov2:52
xG 0.02–0.23 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser12:28
xG 1.12–0.60 (65%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Ericsson – Green2:05
xG 0.06–0.09 (37%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green8:51
xG 0.24–0.29 (46%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).