Thu, Mar 8, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 0, Florida Panthers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 010 | 017 | 013 | 040 |
| FLA | 112 | 212 | 28 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:16FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 1:41FLANick BjugstadAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 2:44FLAMicheal HaleyAssists: Derek MacKenzie · Slap, 0.20 xG0–3
- P3 1:23FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.06 xG0–4
- P3 14:56FLAVincent TrocheckSHAssists: Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:08FLAAlexander Petrovic: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 14:28MTLDaniel Carr: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 10:06MTLNikita Scherbak: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:58FLAAlexander Petrovic: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 12:42FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Holding2 min
- P3 14:46FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against de la Rose
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Froese – Carr10:53
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Galchenyuk – de la Rose – Lehkonen2:52
xG 0.03–0.10 (25%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Shaw – Shaw – Scherbak9:47
xG 0.20–0.51 (28%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Byron – de la Rose – Lehkonen9:02
xG 0.14–0.47 (22%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Reilly11:14
xG 0.62–0.42 (59%)attempts 17–9goals 0–2
- Alzner – Benn4:49
xG 0.11–0.02 (88%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Benn2:21
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov9:29
xG 1.21–0.49 (71%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- McGinn – McCann – Mamin9:01
xG 0.51–0.11 (82%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Trocheck – Huberdeau10:58
xG 0.49–0.17 (75%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley9:08
xG 0.27–0.49 (35%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad13:47
xG 1.46–0.57 (72%)attempts 19–15goals 2–0
- Petrovic – Weegar16:03
xG 0.80–0.34 (70%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Matheson15:55
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 12–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).