Thu, Mar 8, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 111 | 117 | 112 | 340 |
| CHI | 29 | 05 | 010 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:02CHITomas JurcoAssists: Brent Seabrook · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 10:32CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Justin Williams, Brett Pesce · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 15:06CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Anthony Duclair, David Kampf · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 1:06CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Elias Lindholm, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 4:35CARSebastian AhoPPGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Elias Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:58CARJustin Williams: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:31CHIDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:44CHIPatrick Sharp: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:57CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schmaltz won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – McGinn – Lindholm13:11
xG 0.93–0.29 (77%)attempts 24–7goals 2–0
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe11:46
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Nordstrom – Ryan6:46
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho10:47
xG 0.43–0.66 (40%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hanifin12:51
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Faulk – Slavin2:13
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Slavin – Pesce14:55
xG 0.88–0.74 (54%)attempts 25–11goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Duclair – Kampf9:16
xG 0.83–0.15 (84%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Jurco – Highmore8:40
xG 0.39–0.58 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Schmaltz – DeBrincat11:50
xG 0.24–0.48 (33%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Saad12:20
xG 0.02–0.84 (3%)attempts 3–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Seabrook – Gustafsson12:35
xG 0.51–0.49 (51%)attempts 7–19goals 1–0
- Oesterle – Rutta13:01
xG 0.31–0.33 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook2:58
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).