Thu, Mar 8, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New York Islanders 1, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 08 | 112 | 02 | 1 | 131 |
| EDM | 07 | 015 | 18 | 06 | 2 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:54NYIThomas HickeyAssists: Brock Nelson, Ryan Pulock · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P3 18:10EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Ethan Bear · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored
- 2. NYI Jordan Eberle scored
- 3. EDM Leon Draisaitl stopped
- 4. NYI Anthony Beauvillier stopped
- 5. EDM Connor McDavid scored
- 6. NYI John Tavares stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:33NYICal Clutterbuck: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:57EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P1 18:06EDMJujhar Khaira: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:06NYICal Clutterbuck: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:51NYIMathew Barzal: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 3:00NYIMathew Barzal: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Barzal – Beauvillier13:53
xG 1.07–0.20 (84%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee13:34
xG 0.51–0.76 (40%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Wagner10:00
xG 0.17–0.54 (24%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Ladd – Nelson – Fritz10:32
xG 0.28–0.67 (29%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDavidson – Pelech14:29
xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Hickey – Pulock16:52
xG 0.65–0.76 (46%)attempts 22–21goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy19:44
xG 1.05–1.28 (45%)attempts 17–29goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Draisaitl – McDavid14:25
xG 1.01–0.61 (62%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
- Strome – Slepyshev – Puljujarvi10:01
xG 0.46–0.25 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Kassian – Pakarinen – Khaira9:08
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Aberg – Caggiula8:51
xG 0.11–0.41 (21%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Nurse19:58
xG 1.35–0.78 (63%)attempts 30–21goals 0–0
- Sekera – Russell14:32
xG 0.28–0.24 (53%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Klefbom – Bear16:22
xG 0.53–0.90 (37%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).