Fri, Mar 9, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Calgary Flames 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 115 | 010 | 112 | 237 |
| OTT | 09 | 09 | 112 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25CGYSam BennettAssists: Micheal Ferland, Brett Kulak · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P3 11:42CGYMatt StajanGWGAssists: Curtis Lazar, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 12:55OTTJean-Gabriel PageauUnassisted · Snap, 0.35 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 7:24CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game2 min
- P2 14:23OTTMatt Duchene: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:18CGYCurtis Lazar: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:41OTTMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:55CGYDougie Hamilton: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan13:13
xG 0.96–0.48 (67%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk14:01
xG 0.58–0.48 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Stajan – Brouwer – Lazar8:31
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett8:35
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Brodie20:31
xG 1.12–0.63 (64%)attempts 26–12goals 0–0
- Stone – Kulak9:31
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Giordano – Hamilton17:44
xG 0.65–0.75 (47%)attempts 16–27goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Duchene – Dzingel12:01
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Ryan – Stone – Pageau12:03
xG 0.57–0.53 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Burrows – Pyatt – McCormick5:59
xG 0.08–0.25 (25%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Smith – Paajarvi9:13
xG 0.17–0.55 (23%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Harpur2:03
xG 0.32–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci11:23
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Chabot4:36
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).