Fri, Mar 9, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 1, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 110 | 05 | 012 | 127 |
| DAL | 09 | 017 | 211 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:16ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 8:50DALDevin ShorePPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 14:23DALJamie BennPPGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:47DALTyler Pitlick: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:26DALAntoine Roussel: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:52ANACorey Perry: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P3 13:48ANAMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:38DALStephen Johns: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase11:51
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Kelly – Vermette – Brown5:30
xG 0.10–0.13 (45%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell13:14
xG 0.32–0.46 (40%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:04
xG 0.20–1.12 (15%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Pettersson8:09
xG 0.26–0.25 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm3:37
xG 0.08–0.12 (42%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Fowler – Montour17:19
xG 0.23–0.54 (29%)attempts 9–25goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin8:43
xG 1.21–0.35 (78%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Roussel – Ritchie9:01
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Smith – Dickinson – Elie6:10
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Shore5:46
xG 0.04–0.02 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell16:26
xG 1.31–0.32 (80%)attempts 23–11goals 0–0
- Johns – Honka7:02
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Johns – Lindell2:34
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).