Fri, Mar 9, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Minnesota Wild 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 114 | 214 | 28 | 536 |
| VAN | 111 | 18 | 013 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53VANMichael Del ZottoAssists: Bo Horvat, Sam Gagner · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 1:42MINZach PariseAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 2:46MINMatt CullenAssists: Tyler Ennis, Charlie Coyle · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 7:51VANJussi JokinenAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 15:38MINEric StaalGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jared Spurgeon · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:16MINCharlie CoyleENAssists: Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–2
- P3 19:46MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Gustav Olofsson, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 8:47VANBo Horvat: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:10MINCharlie Coyle: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:23VANHenrik Sedin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Niederreiter13:10
xG 1.14–0.15 (89%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Cullen – Ennis – Coyle10:31
xG 0.91–0.50 (65%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Winnik – Foligno – Eriksson Ek8:02
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Staal – Zucker – Granlund14:09
xG 0.39–0.60 (39%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon19:11
xG 1.65–0.55 (75%)attempts 21–17goals 2–0
- Prosser – Olofsson8:08
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba19:13
xG 0.30–0.67 (31%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSutter – Archibald – Motte5:00
xG 0.27–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gagner – Leipsic – Horvat7:27
xG 0.46–0.25 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Jokinen6:41
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Leipsic – Horvat – Virtanen4:40
xG 0.13–0.14 (49%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Edler – Gudbranson17:31
xG 0.43–0.47 (48%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Pouliot4:03
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Biega – Pouliot10:39
xG 0.39–0.69 (36%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).