Sat, Mar 10, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Boston Bruins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 212 | 27 | 08 | 427 |
| BOS | 213 | 112 | 415 | 740 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:27BOSNoel AcciariSHAssists: Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 14:10BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Nick Holden · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 14:27CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 14:56CHIErik GustafssonAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Alex DeBrincat · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 6:37CHIJohn HaydenAssists: Patrick Sharp, David Kampf · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 10:05BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Brian Gionta · Snap, 0.15 xG3–3
- P2 15:46CHIMatthew HighmoreAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 6:23BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–4
- P3 8:02BOSBrian GiontaPPAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.41 xG4–6
- P3 9:18BOSRick NashPPGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–5
- P3 19:38BOSSean KuralyENAssists: Tim Schaller, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:41BOSSean Kuraly: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:41CHIJohn Hayden: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:54CHITomas Jurco: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:45BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min
- P1 12:36CHIConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:51BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:55CHITomas Jurco: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:43CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 12:38CHIErik Gustafsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Nash
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Toews – Kane – Saad10:35
xG 0.56–0.62 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Hayden – Schmaltz – DeBrincat8:27
xG 0.03–0.36 (7%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Jurco – Highmore11:22
xG 0.26–0.68 (27%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Rutta3:27
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 3–0
- Murphy – Oesterle3:04
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Rutta10:15
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestNash – Krejci – DeBrusk9:33
xG 0.53–0.19 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Marchand – Nash – Pastrnak13:23
xG 0.74–0.42 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Kuraly – Schaller – Acciari7:53
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Gionta – Wingels – Heinen8:54
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Grzelcyk13:28
xG 0.79–0.34 (70%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Holden – Krug12:18
xG 0.74–0.39 (65%)attempts 17–13goals 0–2
- Chara – Miller3:07
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).