Sat, Mar 10, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Winnipeg Jets 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 011 | 18 | 128 |
| PHI | 011 | 215 | 09 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:40PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 8:01PHIAndrew MacDonaldGWGAssists: Nolan Patrick, Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 8:58WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:56WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:57WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:59PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:43PHIJori Lehtera: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:32PHIRadko Gudas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:26PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Patrick won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Ehlers – Laine13:59
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Armia – Copp – Tanev3:20
xG 0.14–0.04 (76%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Little – Connor7:18
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Little – Perreault4:50
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Byfuglien – Chiarot16:56
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Morrow – Poolman8:07
xG 0.24–0.26 (47%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Myers – Morrissey17:18
xG 0.63–0.92 (41%)attempts 19–22goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Read – Laughton6:12
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick11:42
xG 0.64–0.50 (56%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier2:01
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny9:05
xG 0.09–0.10 (49%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Sanheim10:38
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov13:54
xG 0.60–0.50 (54%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas15:27
xG 0.40–0.62 (39%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).