Sat, Mar 10, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Rangers 3, Florida Panthers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 015 | 16 | 211 | 05 | 1 | 337 |
| FLA | 19 | 110 | 114 | 02 | 2 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:45FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 8:13FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 13:11NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Neal Pionk, Ryan Spooner · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 0:17NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Jesper Fast, Chris Kreider · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 1:02FLAJamie McGinnAssists: Alexander Petrovic, Jared McCann · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 7:25NYRKevin HayesAssists: John Gilmour, Ryan Spooner · Snap, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
- 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 3. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 5. NYR Ryan Spooner stopped
- 6. FLA Vincent Trocheck scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:18NYRCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:18FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:37FLAMacKenzie Weegar: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:52NYRRob O'Gara: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:23NYRPaul Carey: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Fast – Zibanejad13:04
xG 0.78–0.36 (68%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Vesey – Buchnevich13:44
xG 0.88–0.61 (59%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- McLeod – Carey – Holland5:20
xG 0.13–0.56 (19%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Spooner – Hayes14:08
xG 0.43–1.32 (25%)attempts 9–19goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Pionk17:13
xG 1.23–0.65 (65%)attempts 18–16goals 2–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo21:01
xG 0.84–0.70 (55%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
- O'Gara – Gilmour11:08
xG 0.17–1.52 (10%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Huberdeau – Vatrano14:44
xG 1.40–0.51 (73%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- McGinn – McCann – Mamin10:11
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley4:52
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov15:16
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson17:43
xG 1.60–0.58 (73%)attempts 24–14goals 1–2
- Petrovic – Weegar16:22
xG 0.87–0.96 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad16:16
xG 0.43–0.80 (35%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).