Sat, Mar 10, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New Jersey Devils 3, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 18 | 07 | 02 | 2 | 327 |
| NSH | 15 | 012 | 114 | 05 | 1 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:17NSHMattias EkholmUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 7:13NJDSami VatanenAssists: Miles Wood, Will Butcher · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 11:24NJDBrian BoyleAssists: Damon Severson, Patrick Maroon · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 18:54NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NJD Kyle Palmieri stopped
- 2. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
- 3. NJD Jesper Bratt stopped
- 4. NSH Kevin Fiala stopped
- 5. NJD Drew Stafford stopped
- 6. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 7. NJD Taylor Hall scored
- 8. NSH Kyle Turris scored
- 9. NJD Brian Boyle scored
- 10. NSH Craig Smith stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:43NSHKevin Fiala: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:03NJDMiles Wood: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:23NSHP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:46NJDBrian Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:06NSHRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:54NJDMichael Grabner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Maroon – Coleman – Noesen9:14
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Grabner – Palmieri – Gibbons8:05
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Boyle – Stafford – Wood9:45
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Hall – Bratt – Hischier6:25
xG 0.14–0.35 (28%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Severson15:49
xG 0.69–0.56 (55%)attempts 16–20goals 0–1
- Lovejoy – Butcher10:24
xG 0.10–0.23 (31%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Greene – Vatanen16:23
xG 0.34–0.76 (31%)attempts 16–26goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:49
xG 0.59–0.18 (77%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Forsberg2:54
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala9:43
xG 0.36–0.19 (66%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Fisher – Watson – Sissons6:04
xG 0.18–0.15 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm17:39
xG 1.04–0.61 (63%)attempts 38–12goals 1–1
- Josi – Ellis17:29
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Emelin – Weber9:43
xG 0.05–0.17 (22%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).