Sun, Mar 11, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Islanders 5, Calgary Flames 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 310 | 113 | 14 | 527 |
| CGY | 114 | 019 | 119 | 252 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14NYINick LeddyAssists: Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 2:32NYIJohnny BoychukAssists: Casey Cizikas, Ross Johnston · Slap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 7:23CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 10:25NYIJordan EberleGWGAssists: Johnny Boychuk, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 0:50NYIAnders LeeAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy · Slap, 0.27 xG4–1
- P3 7:24CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.42 xG4–2
- P3 19:49NYIAnders LeeENAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.68 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:23NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:56CGYGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:56NYIRoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:56NYIRoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:41NYIBrandon Davidson: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:58CGYSean Monahan: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:23NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Nelson – Beauvillier – Fritz9:33
xG 0.30–0.44 (40%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Johnston5:48
xG 0.06–0.22 (21%)attempts 5–9goals 2–0
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal10:06
xG 0.52–0.73 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee11:33
xG 0.28–0.60 (32%)attempts 7–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Pulock2:23
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Davidson – Pelech12:36
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy12:50
xG 0.62–0.68 (48%)attempts 12–17goals 3–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk9:37
xG 0.49–0.10 (82%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan10:43
xG 0.82–0.78 (51%)attempts 17–12goals 2–1
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett4:42
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Stajan – Brouwer – Lazar6:34
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Kulak9:39
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Brodie17:43
xG 0.80–0.69 (53%)attempts 30–16goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton18:32
xG 1.14–1.13 (50%)attempts 27–19goals 2–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).