Mon, Mar 12, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 19 | 08 | 212 | 329 |
| PHI | 09 | 116 | 115 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17VGKErik HaulaPPAssists: David Perron, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 1:27PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 6:00VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Tomas Hyka, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P3 7:06PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 17:20VGKRyan CarpenterGWGAssists: Cody Eakin, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:27PHITravis Konecny: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 9:30VGKShea Theodore: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:55VGKJonathan Marchessault: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:30PHITravis Sanheim: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:31VGKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:35VGKWilliam Karlsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Marchessault – Tuch14:21
xG 0.82–0.31 (73%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Eakin – Carpenter – Bellemare2:17
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Reaves – Bellemare – Nosek5:00
xG 0.09–0.06 (61%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Eakin – Hyka – Carpenter7:38
xG 0.33–0.36 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Miller13:23
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- McNabb – Schmidt17:22
xG 0.59–0.36 (63%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Engelland – Theodore12:36
xG 0.52–0.93 (36%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Lindblom – Patrick7:50
xG 0.80–0.18 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier3:05
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Raffl12:02
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Lehtera – Read – Laughton5:48
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Sanheim12:29
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas14:54
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov15:08
xG 0.41–0.84 (33%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).