Mon, Mar 12, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Winnipeg Jets 2, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 010 | 110 | 00 | 228 |
| WSH | 114 | 113 | 09 | 17 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:35WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 5:33WPGNikolaj EhlersUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 3:53WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Tom Wilson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 5:02WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Paul Stastny, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 4:11WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:18WPGBryan Little: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:53WPGMatt Hendricks: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:10WSHT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:44WSHT.J. Oshie: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:59WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:24WSHJay Beagle: Slashing2 min
- OT 0:19WPGBryan Little: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Little – Connor14:33
xG 0.58–0.15 (80%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Armia – Tanev5:23
xG 0.11–0.10 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Perreault – Copp – Roslovic9:24
xG 0.41–0.65 (39%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Stastny – Ehlers – Laine11:13
xG 0.27–0.93 (23%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Morrissey17:24
xG 0.74–0.23 (76%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Morrow – Poolman9:47
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot19:13
xG 0.32–1.38 (19%)attempts 17–21goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson14:19
xG 0.96–0.18 (84%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson5:53
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Smith-Pelly – Connolly2:15
xG 0.06–0.10 (37%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Vrana8:05
xG 0.39–0.54 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov18:18
xG 1.19–0.39 (75%)attempts 20–16goals 1–1
- Orpik – Carlson2:39
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Orpik – Jerabek10:38
xG 0.33–0.42 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).