Mon, Mar 12, 2018·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Montréal Canadiens 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 16 | 024 | 240 |
| CBJ | 311 | 19 | 15 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 4:17CBJNick FolignoUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 7:51CBJAlexander WennbergPPAssists: Seth Jones, Cam Atkinson · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 14:03CBJSeth JonesPPGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 2:34CBJBoone JennerAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Ian Cole · Tip-in, 0.26 xG1–4
- P2 15:46MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 17:41CBJIan ColeAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:11MTLJeff Petry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:30MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:59CBJJack Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:16MTLDaniel Carr: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:34CBJArtemi Panarin: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Gallagher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Shaw – Carr10:01
xG 1.00–0.19 (84%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Shaw – Lehkonen – Scherbak9:14
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Byron – Gallagher – Drouin11:43
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Galchenyuk – Hudon – de la Rose12:55
xG 0.11–0.93 (11%)attempts 9–13goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Juulsen13:44
xG 0.59–0.04 (93%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Lernout15:43
xG 0.83–0.61 (57%)attempts 18–10goals 0–2
- Petry – Reilly18:16
xG 1.02–1.10 (48%)attempts 24–17goals 2–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Jenner – Wennberg9:00
xG 0.63–0.29 (69%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Milano10:11
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Letestu – Sedlak9:59
xG 0.23–0.16 (58%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois14:10
xG 0.68–0.72 (48%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Savard14:58
xG 0.67–0.37 (64%)attempts 9–13goals 2–1
- Jones – Werenski10:23
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Savard – Werenski3:00
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).