Tue, Mar 13, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Boston Bruins 6, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 113 | 06 | 515 | 634 |
| CAR | 07 | 318 | 18 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:49BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 2:10CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 12:06CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 18:43CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Brock McGinn, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–3
- P3 0:51CARBrock McGinnSHAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–4
- P3 10:04BOSMatt GrzelcykAssists: Sean Kuraly, Tim Schaller · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 11:00BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 11:21BOSDanton HeinenAssists: David Krejci, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 16:30BOSDavid PastrnakPPGWGAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.06 xG5–4
- P3 18:26BOSDavid PastrnakENAssists: Kevan Miller, Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.59 xG6–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:04BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Holding2 min
- P1 11:47BOSRick Nash: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:33CARDerek Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:15CARVictor Rask: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:15BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:28BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 11:44BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:25CARBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:52CARJustin Faulk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Nash
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Kuraly – Schaller – Acciari9:02
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Nash – Krejci – DeBrusk7:53
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Gionta – Backes – Heinen8:06
xG 0.26–0.40 (40%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Marchand – Nash – Pastrnak11:44
xG 0.42–1.14 (27%)attempts 6–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Miller6:04
xG 0.36–0.25 (58%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug8:22
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo2:45
xG 0.02–0.06 (24%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Teravainen – Aho9:32
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Williams – McGinn – Lindholm11:21
xG 0.90–0.64 (59%)attempts 15–11goals 1–2
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe10:46
xG 0.55–0.33 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Stempniak – Nordstrom – Ryan5:48
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Fleury13:55
xG 1.20–0.50 (71%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Slavin – Pesce12:57
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 12–8goals 0–3
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin12:38
xG 0.65–0.64 (50%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).