Tue, Mar 13, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Dallas Stars 2, Montréal Canadiens 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 115 | 17 | 016 | 238 |
| MTL | 18 | 211 | 17 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:48DALRadek FaksaAssists: Greg Pateryn, Tyler Pitlick · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 16:31MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Jacob de la Rose · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:41MTLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 9:16MTLBrendan GallagherPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 18:20DALJamie BennPPAssists: Alexander Radulov, Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 9:26MTLNikita ScherbakPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
- P2 7:44DALDan Hamhuis: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 8:55DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:12MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:06DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:08MTLCharles Hudon: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:08MTLKarl Alzner: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:08DALBrett Ritchie: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:40DALJason Dickinson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:40DALJason Dickinson: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:40MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:40MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:00DALGreg Pateryn: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:08MTLBrett Lernout: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:47MTLByron Froese: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drouin won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Ritchie – Elie4:18
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin15:43
xG 0.58–0.35 (62%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Dickinson – Elie2:48
xG 0.12–0.10 (53%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Shore – Janmark3:08
xG 0.02–0.03 (37%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Pateryn11:04
xG 0.91–0.28 (76%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Johns – Klingberg2:15
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Johns2:55
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGalchenyuk – de la Rose – Lehkonen9:16
xG 0.56–0.09 (86%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Shaw – de la Rose – Lehkonen2:55
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Froese – Shaw8:18
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Byron – Gallagher – Drouin13:05
xG 0.30–0.78 (28%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Juulsen15:27
xG 0.91–0.52 (63%)attempts 27–10goals 0–0
- Benn – Lernout13:45
xG 0.29–0.30 (50%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
- Petry – Reilly17:08
xG 0.32–0.78 (29%)attempts 7–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).