Tue, Mar 13, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Winnipeg Jets 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 012 | 115 | 133 |
| NSH | 324 | 011 | 010 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:48NSHKevin FialaAssists: Roman Josi, Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 8:15NSHAustin WatsonSHGWGAssists: Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 8:49NSHViktor ArvidssonSHAssists: Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.27 xG0–3
- P3 1:08WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 0:43WPGBryan Little: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:32NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:52WPGJoel Armia: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:30NSHCraig Smith: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:30WPGBlake Wheeler: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:30WPGBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:44NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:26NSHKyle Turris: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:13WPGJosh Morrissey: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:13NSHAustin Watson: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:40NSHKyle Turris: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 8:29NSHAustin Watson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:30WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:30NSHP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:29NSHRyan Ellis: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:29WPGBryan Little: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wheeler won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Copp – Roslovic10:18
xG 0.78–0.41 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Matthias – Dano – Tanev6:10
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Laine12:23
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Little – Armia – Connor7:37
xG 0.09–0.53 (15%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrow – Poolman11:43
xG 1.06–0.51 (68%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Myers – Morrissey14:10
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot13:41
xG 0.34–0.95 (26%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala8:44
xG 0.90–0.15 (86%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Sissons3:37
xG 0.31–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Fisher – Watson – Sissons5:57
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Fisher – Watson – Arvidsson2:28
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm15:55
xG 0.87–0.44 (67%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis14:26
xG 0.93–0.69 (57%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
- Emelin – Weber11:13
xG 0.18–0.68 (21%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).