Tue, Mar 13, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 5, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 15 | 110 | 37 | 522 |
| MIN | 012 | 115 | 07 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:22COLJ.T. CompherAssists: David Warsofsky · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 13:56MINMikko KoivuAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 14:55COLNikita ZadorovGWGAssists: Blake Comeau · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 0:11COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 13:26COLJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Sven Andrighetto · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–1
- P3 18:39COLTyson JostPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mikko Rantanen · Backhand, 0.34 xG5–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:09COLBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:10COLTyson Jost: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:10MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:39COLPatrik Nemeth: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:31MINNate Prosser: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:31COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:15COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:22COLBlake Comeau: Interference2 min
- P3 9:05MINJonas Brodin: Holding2 min
- P3 12:02MINMarcus Foligno: Charging2 min · PPG
- P3 17:26MINJason Zucker: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Bourque – Toninato – Kerfoot4:31
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Andrighetto – Compher – Jost9:13
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:21
xG 0.31–0.70 (31%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto9:55
xG 0.05–0.46 (10%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWarsofsky – Siemens5:14
xG 0.31–0.17 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Warsofsky – Zadorov2:08
xG 0.02–0.01 (57%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Zadorov3:16
xG 0.03–0.07 (32%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Granlund8:01
xG 0.43–0.03 (94%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle11:23
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Cullen – Ennis – Niederreiter5:26
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Winnik – Foligno – Eriksson Ek3:58
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon13:34
xG 0.97–0.33 (75%)attempts 19–15goals 0–2
- Prosser – Seeler10:05
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba13:45
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).