Tue, Mar 13, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 0, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 011 | 09 | 08 | 028 |
| CGY | 010 | 112 | 010 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:18CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Micheal Ferland · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:32CGYTravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:32EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:19CGYMatt Stajan: Interference2 min
- P2 6:45EDMDrake Caggiula: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:54EDMMichael Cammalleri: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:14CGYCurtis Lazar: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:07CGYDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Aberg – McDavid10:15
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Lucic – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi2:18
xG 0.07–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Strome – McDavid2:34
xG 0.01–0.01 (52%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kassian – Khaira – Caggiula5:44
xG 0.36–0.50 (42%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Nurse14:45
xG 0.69–0.66 (51%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Russell – Bear17:42
xG 0.63–0.71 (47%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Sekera – Benning11:10
xG 0.51–0.73 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan12:11
xG 0.79–0.25 (76%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Stajan – Stewart – Lazar6:56
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Shore – Hathaway9:24
xG 0.43–0.26 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bennett14:07
xG 0.39–0.79 (33%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Kulak9:45
xG 0.87–0.54 (62%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie16:41
xG 0.78–0.49 (61%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Stone – Brodie2:12
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).