Wed, Mar 14, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New York Rangers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 014 | 213 | 19 | 04 | 340 |
| NYR | 07 | 09 | 314 | 13 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:53PITBryan RustAssists: Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 2:48PITRiley SheahanAssists: Kris Letang, Carter Rowney · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 8:42NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.53 xG2–1
- P3 14:28NYRJesper FastAssists: Marc Staal, Chris Kreider · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 15:41PITCarl HagelinAssists: Olli Maatta · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 16:43NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Neal Pionk · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 2:53NYRMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Chris Kreider, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:28NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:40PITOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:58NYRBrady Skjei: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:47NYRRyan Sproul: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:29PITPatric Hornqvist: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:22PITChad Ruhwedel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:49NYRAlexandar Georgiev: Penalty shot goalkeeper displaced net0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin13:41
xG 1.03–0.50 (67%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Kuhnhackl – Rowney4:55
xG 0.43–0.09 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Rust11:34
xG 0.82–0.53 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Sheary7:38
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin16:02
xG 0.61–0.40 (61%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Maatta – Ruhwedel15:27
xG 0.56–0.68 (45%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Schultz – Oleksiak14:26
xG 0.44–0.97 (31%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Fast – Zibanejad9:58
xG 0.90–0.41 (69%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- McLeod – Desharnais – Carey3:59
xG 0.09–0.24 (27%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Spooner – Hayes15:20
xG 0.47–0.83 (36%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
- Namestnikov – Vesey – Buchnevich12:01
xG 0.45–0.90 (33%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSproul – Skjei14:00
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 16–12goals 0–2
- O'Gara – Gilmour13:52
xG 0.45–1.02 (31%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Staal – Pionk17:35
xG 0.60–1.24 (33%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).