Wed, Mar 14, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 118 | 19 | 13 | 440 |
| EDM | 113 | 17 | 16 | 02 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39EDMDrake CaggiulaAssists: Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 8:03SJSTomas HertlAssists: Logan Couture, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 7:44EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: Connor McDavid, Pontus Aberg · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 10:01SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 1:26EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Connor McDavid · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 9:05SJSBrenden DillonAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 2:40SJSTomas HertlGWGAssists: Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 9:43EDMDrake Caggiula: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 11:10SJSTimo Meier: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:10EDMPontus Aberg: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:38EDMZack Kassian: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Sorensen – Karlsson6:33
xG 0.54–0.07 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Couture – Boedker – Hertl11:59
xG 0.66–0.20 (76%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Kane – Donskoi9:25
xG 0.54–0.25 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Tierney – Karlsson – Meier2:39
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun18:03
xG 1.06–0.54 (66%)attempts 16–15goals 0–2
- Burns – Ryan15:32
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic2:05
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi11:54
xG 0.89–0.48 (65%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
- Kassian – Khaira – Caggiula10:57
xG 0.31–0.51 (38%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Pakarinen – Strome8:51
xG 0.24–0.52 (32%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Aberg – McDavid15:50
xG 0.51–1.09 (32%)attempts 12–17goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlefbom – Bear12:18
xG 1.03–0.56 (65%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Larsson – Klefbom2:41
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Sekera – Russell11:34
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).