Wed, Mar 14, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
New Jersey Devils 8, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 27 | 212 | 49 | 828 |
| VGK | 013 | 217 | 112 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:23NJDBlake ColemanSHAssists: Brian Gibbons · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 8:10NJDNico HischierAssists: Damon Severson, Sami Vatanen · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 1:55NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Michael Grabner, Will Butcher · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 2:31NJDStefan NoesenGWGAssists: Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–0
- P2 11:08VGKErik HaulaPPAssists: Colin Miller, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.49 xG4–1
- P2 18:55VGKColin MillerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 2:04NJDBlake ColemanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 7:02NJDMichael GrabnerAssists: Nico Hischier, Brian Gibbons · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–2
- P3 10:21NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Patrick Maroon, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.07 xG7–2
- P3 14:31NJDTaylor HallAssists: Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.14 xG8–2
- P3 19:32VGKErik HaulaPPAssists: David Perron, Tomas Tatar · Deflected, 0.15 xG8–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:40NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:16NJDMichael Grabner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:40VGKTomas Tatar: Holding2 min
- P2 15:15NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:08VGKJon Merrill: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:01NJDWill Butcher: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:48NJDJohn Moore: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Carpenter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hischier7:20
xG 0.94–0.18 (84%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Zajac – Grabner – Gibbons8:41
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Grabner – Gibbons – Hischier2:19
xG 0.22–0.16 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Boyle – Stafford – Wood11:16
xG 0.21–0.30 (42%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Vatanen13:28
xG 1.03–0.60 (63%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Lovejoy – Butcher9:22
xG 0.50–0.09 (85%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Vatanen – Butcher2:32
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Tatar – Haula13:25
xG 0.98–0.51 (66%)attempts 26–8goals 0–3
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Tuch10:41
xG 0.65–0.65 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Eakin – Carpenter – Tuch2:11
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Reaves – Bellemare – Nosek7:40
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt9:57
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Merrill – Schmidt2:30
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Merrill – Miller15:07
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).