Thu, Mar 15, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Washington Capitals 7, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 39 | 28 | 25 | 722 |
| NYI | 212 | 014 | 112 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:19NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Tanner Fritz, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 10:32WSHLars EllerAssists: Jakub Vrana, Brett Connolly · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 11:29WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 12:29NYIAndrew LaddAssists: Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P1 17:17WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 3:12WSHAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Jakub Jerabek, Matt Niskanen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P2 10:22WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.19 xG5–2
- P3 15:41WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–2
- P3 16:33NYIRyan PulockAssists: Tanner Fritz · Slap, 0.02 xG6–3
- P3 18:06WSHT.J. OshieENAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.64 xG7–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:49WSHMichal Kempny: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:29WSHMatt Niskanen: Interference2 min
- P2 8:35NYICal Clutterbuck: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:08WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky9:52
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson12:44
xG 0.55–0.33 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – Vrana6:49
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson3:48
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny16:56
xG 0.64–0.51 (55%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov17:50
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 9–16goals 2–1
- Orpik – Jerabek14:16
xG 0.12–0.94 (12%)attempts 4–18goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Beauvillier – Fritz12:11
xG 0.45–0.16 (73%)attempts 12–3goals 2–0
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal12:09
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 14–5goals 1–1
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee11:04
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Johnston7:58
xG 0.27–0.23 (55%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pulock16:07
xG 1.01–0.47 (68%)attempts 28–10goals 2–1
- Davidson – Pelech13:34
xG 0.43–0.14 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy17:18
xG 0.43–0.55 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).