Thu, Mar 15, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 38 | 114 | 17 | 529 |
| PHI | 19 | 29 | 012 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:41CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Seth Jones, Sonny Milano · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 9:52CBJBoone JennerAssists: Jack Johnson, Thomas Vanek · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 11:34PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Travis Konecny, Andrew MacDonald · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 18:08CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Zach Werenski, Artemi Panarin · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 0:14PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Ivan Provorov, Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 3:23CBJCam AtkinsonGWGAssists: David Savard · Slap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P2 12:23PHIAndrew MacDonaldAssists: Travis Sanheim, Travis Konecny · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:59CBJCam AtkinsonENAssists: Artemi Panarin, David Savard · Wrist, 0.74 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:18CBJIan Cole: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:16CBJArtemi Panarin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:32CBJThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:56PHITravis Konecny: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Jenner – Wennberg10:10
xG 0.66–0.16 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Letestu – Calvert8:26
xG 0.49–0.16 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois15:08
xG 0.56–0.29 (65%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Milano9:39
xG 0.26–0.65 (29%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Nutivaara13:17
xG 0.64–0.27 (71%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Cole – Savard17:15
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Jones – Werenski16:25
xG 0.84–0.89 (48%)attempts 22–25goals 2–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Lindblom – Patrick12:53
xG 0.78–0.47 (62%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny13:04
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Laughton – Raffl3:18
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Raffl4:30
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas15:27
xG 0.70–0.56 (55%)attempts 20–19goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Provorov16:58
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 14–16goals 0–2
- MacDonald – Sanheim13:31
xG 0.52–0.74 (41%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).