Thu, Mar 15, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Montréal Canadiens 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 211 | 118 | 210 | 539 |
| MTL | 29 | 14 | 07 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:15MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Jeff Petry, Alex Galchenyuk · Tip-in, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 6:31MTLPaul ByronPPAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–2
- P1 10:05PITPhil KesselAssists: Bryan Rust, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 14:33PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 10:30PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 12:57MTLNicolas DeslauriersAssists: Daniel Carr, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 12:24PITPatric HornqvistGWGAssists: Carl Hagelin, Brian Dumoulin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 18:07PITBryan RustENAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:08PITJamie Oleksiak: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:07MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference2 min
- P2 10:07MTLJeff Petry: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against de la Rose
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Kessel – Rust10:45
xG 0.52–0.05 (91%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin13:53
xG 0.62–0.46 (58%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Crosby – Sheahan – Guentzel2:14
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Sheary13:49
xG 0.64–0.68 (49%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Oleksiak17:03
xG 0.92–0.23 (80%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin15:29
xG 0.90–0.58 (61%)attempts 22–14goals 2–1
- Maatta – Ruhwedel16:25
xG 0.28–0.61 (32%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Byron – Gallagher – Drouin13:37
xG 0.40–0.46 (46%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Galchenyuk – de la Rose – Lehkonen13:51
xG 0.50–0.63 (44%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Froese – Carr7:59
xG 0.24–0.55 (30%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Shaw – Hudon – Scherbak9:14
xG 0.05–0.44 (11%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Alzner – Juulsen16:22
xG 0.55–0.50 (52%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Benn – Lernout13:59
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Petry – Reilly19:46
xG 0.73–1.39 (34%)attempts 18–24goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).