Fri, Mar 16, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Islanders 3, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 04 | 19 | 212 | 325 |
| WSH | 110 | 210 | 311 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:33WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 5:30NYIMathew BarzalPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 7:12WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 17:55WSHMatt NiskanenAssists: Alex Chiasson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 1:46WSHAlex ChiassonPPGWGAssists: Jakub Vrana, Dmitry Orlov · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 10:56WSHJakub VranaAssists: Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–5
- P3 13:52NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–5
- P3 16:14NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 18:02WSHLars EllerENAssists: Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.53 xG3–6
Penalties (17)
- P1 1:04NYIJohnny Boychuk: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:13NYICasey Cizikas: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:00NYIThomas Hickey: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:30WSHAlex Ovechkin: Broken stick2 min
- P2 3:45WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:08WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:08NYIRoss Johnston: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P2 6:08NYIRoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:08NYIRoss Johnston: Misconduct10 min
- P2 6:08NYIRoss Johnston: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 6:19NYICal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min
- P2 8:30WSHDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:54NYIThomas Hickey: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:23NYITanner Fritz: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:05WSHDmitry Orlov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:02NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:12WSHAndre Burakovsky: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Barzal2:29
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Johnston2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal4:46
xG 0.02–0.04 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Beauvillier5:14
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Boychuk – Leddy7:54
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Leddy – Pulock2:55
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hickey – Pulock10:06
xG 0.36–0.84 (30%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Smith-Pelly – Boyd3:45
xG 0.48–0.08 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Chiasson – Vrana6:47
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson7:06
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky8:06
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov11:45
xG 0.77–0.24 (76%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Carlson – Kempny8:17
xG 0.76–0.32 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Orpik – Djoos9:51
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).