Fri, Mar 16, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 7, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 14 | 414 | 210 | 728 |
| CGY | 19 | 212 | 113 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:00SJSEvander KaneAssists: Jannik Hansen · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 16:42CGYTroy BrouwerAssists: Curtis Lazar, Matt Stajan · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 2:10CGYMark JankowskiAssists: Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 6:29SJSEvander KaneAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Brenden Dillon · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 10:16CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Micheal Ferland, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 11:42SJSKevin LabancAssists: Brent Burns · Snap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P2 16:32SJSEvander KaneAssists: Chris Tierney · Snap, 0.32 xG4–3
- P2 18:02SJSTomas HertlGWGAssists: Justin Braun, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.45 xG5–3
- P3 1:02SJSEvander KaneAssists: Joe Pavelski · Tip-in, 0.12 xG6–3
- P3 14:25CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Sean Monahan, Dougie Hamilton · Backhand, 0.11 xG6–4
- P3 16:02SJSEric FehrENAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.67 xG7–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:37CGYDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:45CGYBrett Kulak: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 12:24SJSChris Tierney: Interference2 min
- P2 13:40SJSEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Kane – Tierney7:35
xG 1.07–0.39 (73%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Couture – Boedker – Hertl10:21
xG 0.66–0.57 (53%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Fehr – Labanc – Meier4:39
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Hansen – Goodrow – Karlsson4:57
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan16:36
xG 1.04–0.36 (74%)attempts 23–15goals 2–0
- Dillon – DeMelo10:23
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
- Vlasic – Braun17:19
xG 0.77–0.80 (49%)attempts 16–23goals 2–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Versteeg – Jankowski – Hathaway9:58
xG 0.31–0.33 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Stajan – Brouwer – Lazar9:01
xG 0.25–0.40 (39%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan13:23
xG 0.56–0.72 (43%)attempts 16–11goals 1–2
- Frolik – Backlund – Bennett15:06
xG 0.59–1.25 (32%)attempts 21–17goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Giordano – Hamilton17:11
xG 0.79–0.90 (47%)attempts 20–14goals 2–3
- Stone – Kulak13:21
xG 0.24–0.64 (27%)attempts 10–22goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Brodie18:22
xG 0.62–1.19 (34%)attempts 22–19goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).