Fri, Mar 16, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Detroit Red Wings 2, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 19 | 010 | 230 |
| ANA | 19 | 218 | 19 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:02ANANick RitchieAssists: Ondrej Kase, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 17:14DETMike GreenAssists: Dylan Larkin, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 2:48ANADerek GrantAssists: Jakob Silfverberg · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 7:10DETGustav NyquistAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 16:42ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 5:04ANARyan KeslerAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Jakob Silfverberg · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:28DETMike Green: High sticking2 min
- P1 2:53ANAOndrej Kase: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:18ANARyan Getzlaf: Interference2 min
- P1 13:39DETLuke Witkowski: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:39ANANick Ritchie: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:21DETJonathan Ericsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:02ANACorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:06ANARyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:00DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:00ANACorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:18DETAnthony Mantha: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:18ANARyan Kesler: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:05ANARyan Kesler: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Glendening – Larkin2:29
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Glendening2:19
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi11:27
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Athanasiou3:36
xG 0.01–0.28 (3%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – DeKeyser13:01
xG 0.91–0.32 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Jensen6:20
xG 0.16–0.02 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Daley – Ericsson11:41
xG 0.52–1.34 (28%)attempts 8–18goals 0–3
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:56
xG 0.81–0.25 (76%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell11:12
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Chimera – Kelly – Grant2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase6:41
xG 0.28–0.43 (39%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Pettersson8:31
xG 0.82–0.27 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Fowler – Montour17:53
xG 0.69–0.51 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm16:09
xG 0.57–0.68 (46%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).