Fri, Mar 16, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Minnesota Wild 4, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 213 | 16 | 430 |
| VGK | 08 | 07 | 213 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:19MINJason ZuckerAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 5:53MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Matt Cullen, Jonas Brodin · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 7:36MINMathew DumbaGWGAssists: Jason Zucker, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–0
- P3 13:28VGKErik HaulaAssists: David Perron, Colin Miller · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 19:04VGKRyan CarpenterAssists: David Perron, Erik Haula · Backhand, 0.26 xG3–2
- P3 19:26MINZach PariseENAssists: Mikko Koivu, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:13MINZach Parise: Holding2 min
- P1 14:04VGKTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:01MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:15VGKJonathan Marchessault: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:35VGKJon Merrill: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:27MINZack Mitchell: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Ennis – Coyle9:16
xG 0.66–0.17 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Granlund11:51
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Niederreiter10:52
xG 0.91–0.84 (52%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Foligno – Mitchell – Eriksson Ek6:05
xG 0.06–0.22 (20%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba17:19
xG 1.01–0.72 (58%)attempts 19–21goals 1–0
- Prosser – Seeler7:45
xG 0.40–0.13 (76%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Brodin – Murphy14:03
xG 0.50–0.66 (43%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Bellemare – Nosek9:25
xG 0.73–0.42 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Perron – Tatar – Haula10:56
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Neal – Karlsson – Marchessault10:52
xG 0.31–0.56 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Eakin – Carpenter – Tuch7:48
xG 0.27–0.56 (32%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- McNabb – Schmidt12:58
xG 0.87–0.88 (50%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Engelland – Theodore10:40
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Engelland – Schmidt3:07
xG 0.22–0.27 (44%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).