Sat, Mar 17, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 012 | 217 | 19 | 338 |
| BUF | 112 | 16 | 314 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:10BUFBenoit PouliotAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Sam Reinhart · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 8:15CHIJordan OesterleAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 11:07BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 14:15CHITomas JurcoAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 0:20CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Brandon Saad, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 2:17BUFNick BaptisteAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Victor Antipin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 18:04BUFNick BaptisteGWGAssists: Marco Scandella, Johan Larsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 19:21BUFSam ReinhartENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:55BUFBrendan Guhle: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:35BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P2 7:00CHIVinnie Hinostroza: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:46CHITomas Jurco: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:50CHIDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:03CHIBrent Seabrook: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHinostroza – Schmaltz – Highmore9:32
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Toews – Kane – Saad13:01
xG 1.07–0.88 (55%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
- Sharp – Hayden – Kampf8:17
xG 0.47–0.59 (45%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Jurco – DeBrincat10:43
xG 0.41–0.55 (43%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Rutta15:17
xG 1.16–0.59 (66%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Murphy – Oesterle13:32
xG 0.45–0.60 (43%)attempts 16–8goals 0–2
- Seabrook – Gustafsson14:05
xG 0.44–1.01 (31%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – O'Reilly – Reinhart2:34
xG 0.47–0.08 (85%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Pominville – Pouliot – Eichel4:43
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Bailey – Baptiste – Rodrigues2:54
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Pominville – Wilson – Eichel2:36
xG 0.12–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Beaulieu – Antipin13:20
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen15:39
xG 1.28–1.32 (49%)attempts 22–19goals 1–2
- Falk – Guhle13:58
xG 0.66–0.73 (48%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).