Sat, Mar 17, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Edmonton Oilers 4, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 010 | 17 | 319 | 436 |
| FLA | 016 | 214 | 012 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:02FLAFrank VatranoUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 11:09EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsSHAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 15:54FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 0:38EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ty Rattie, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 6:13EDMAdam LarssonGWGAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.49 xG3–2
- P3 19:10EDMTy RattieENAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.60 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:10FLAMicheal Haley: Interference2 min
- P1 8:10EDMJujhar Khaira: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:10FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:08EDMOscar Klefbom: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:09EDMMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:41EDMMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:43EDMOscar Klefbom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:21EDMTy Rattie: Holding2 min
- P3 6:36EDMAnton Slepyshev: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:36FLAVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:05EDMLeon Draisaitl: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestRattie – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid12:01
xG 1.94–1.15 (63%)attempts 19–12goals 2–0
- Slepyshev – Draisaitl – Caggiula9:40
xG 0.55–0.24 (70%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Lucic – Strome – Puljujarvi6:01
xG 0.14–0.08 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Kassian – Pakarinen – Khaira4:51
xG 0.11–0.18 (39%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Nurse16:13
xG 1.80–0.83 (68%)attempts 23–13goals 2–0
- Klefbom – Bear14:00
xG 0.94–0.81 (54%)attempts 19–14goals 0–2
- Sekera – Benning10:53
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley3:53
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McGinn – McCann – Malgin5:17
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Vatrano10:21
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov11:16
xG 0.51–0.85 (37%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson14:48
xG 0.89–0.60 (60%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Weegar – McCoshen11:35
xG 0.27–0.33 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad13:28
xG 0.81–1.58 (34%)attempts 12–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).