Sat, Mar 17, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 09 | 013 | 033 |
| TOR | 113 | 226 | 110 | 449 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:01TORWilliam NylanderPPGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 3:00TORKasperi KapanenAssists: Travis Dermott, Curtis McElhinney · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 19:31TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 15:27TORAndreas JohnssonAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor Carrick · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:32MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 8:13MTLKarl Alzner: Holding2 min
- P2 18:36MTLMichael McCarron: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:22MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:37TORTyler Bozak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drouin won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGalchenyuk – de la Rose – Lehkonen11:19
xG 0.81–0.16 (84%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Byron – Gallagher – Drouin11:14
xG 0.60–0.74 (45%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – McCarron – Carr9:11
xG 0.09–0.48 (15%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Shaw – Hudon – Scherbak11:41
xG 0.27–0.87 (24%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Lernout15:49
xG 0.93–0.48 (66%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Petry – Reilly18:26
xG 0.72–1.39 (34%)attempts 20–23goals 0–1
- Alzner – Juulsen16:30
xG 0.15–0.92 (14%)attempts 13–28goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Johnsson – Nylander11:45
xG 1.13–0.15 (88%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner11:27
xG 0.91–0.57 (61%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Moore – Plekanec – Kapanen9:44
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown12:19
xG 0.43–0.46 (49%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrick – Dermott15:26
xG 1.04–0.29 (78%)attempts 21–13goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Rielly15:29
xG 1.26–0.59 (68%)attempts 28–15goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner16:00
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).