Sat, Mar 17, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 011 | 07 | 49 | 427 |
| CAR | 111 | 08 | 16 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:12CARJordan StaalAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 8:19PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Travis Sanheim, Wayne Simmonds · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 10:04CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 11:58PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Nolan Patrick · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 14:11PHIValtteri FilppulaGWGAssists: Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 18:10PHIMichael RafflENAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.59 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:08CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:21CARElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:20PHITravis Sanheim: Interference2 min
- P2 18:32PHIAndrew MacDonald: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Simmonds – Konecny10:13
xG 0.63–0.32 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick10:46
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Raffl11:14
xG 0.43–0.53 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
- Weal – Read – Laughton5:33
xG 0.11–0.64 (15%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Sanheim14:53
xG 0.63–0.28 (69%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Manning – Gudas14:39
xG 0.89–0.98 (48%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov14:59
xG 0.47–0.81 (37%)attempts 14–21goals 1–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Nordstrom – Ryan4:20
xG 0.29–0.05 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Nordstrom – Rask – Di Giuseppe3:51
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho11:51
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe5:42
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce14:53
xG 0.85–0.20 (81%)attempts 20–9goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury2:30
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Faulk – Fleury12:56
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).