Sun, Mar 18, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Detroit Red Wings 1, Colorado Avalanche 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 116 | 017 | 138 |
| COL | 212 | 18 | 211 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Zadorov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 14:38COLBlake ComeauGWGAssists: Carl Soderberg, Matt Nieto · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 11:14COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 12:38DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Martin Frk, Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 7:09COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Blake Comeau, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrap-around, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 16:26COLTyson BarriePPAssists: Samuel Girard, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.09 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P2 3:28COLNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P2 18:30DETAnthony Mantha: Holding2 min
- P3 0:54COLPatrik Nemeth: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:18DETDarren Helm: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:28DETMike Green: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:34DETJustin Abdelkader: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:26DETJustin Abdelkader: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:52COLSven Andrighetto: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Mantha – Larkin7:39
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Frk – Athanasiou – Svechnikov2:51
xG 0.03–0.06 (32%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Glendening2:43
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi9:52
xG 0.53–0.68 (44%)attempts 14–15goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – DeKeyser15:38
xG 0.83–0.58 (59%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Green2:32
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Jensen7:02
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen11:57
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Andrighetto – Compher – Jost9:48
xG 0.38–0.10 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto10:12
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Bourque – Kerfoot – Kamenev6:24
xG 0.00–0.35 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Barrie2:18
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard5:14
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Warsofsky – Nemeth5:51
xG 0.18–0.08 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).