Sun, Mar 18, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Edmonton Oilers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 08 | 014 | 130 |
| TBL | 116 | 114 | 110 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:14EDMTy RattieAssists: Darnell Nurse, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 15:12TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Brayden Point · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 2:24TBLNikita KucherovPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 11:34TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos, J.T. Miller · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:51EDMRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:21EDMJujhar Khaira: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:36EDMAndrej Sekera: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:06TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:54TBLYanni Gourde: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:56TBLYanni Gourde: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:53TBLYanni Gourde: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 13:25TBLAlex Killorn: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:33EDMEthan Bear: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Slepyshev – Draisaitl – Caggiula5:25
xG 0.11–0.17 (38%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Pakarinen – Khaira5:12
xG 0.04–0.16 (22%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Lucic – Strome – Puljujarvi5:49
xG 0.04–0.49 (8%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Rattie – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid10:35
xG 0.18–0.83 (18%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Benning3:18
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse10:46
xG 0.52–0.43 (54%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Larsson – Benning2:01
xG 0.03–0.08 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Miller11:04
xG 0.87–0.18 (83%)attempts 22–5goals 1–0
- Killorn – Gourde – Point10:04
xG 0.79–0.22 (78%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Johnson – Conacher – Erne6:36
xG 0.38–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Cirelli7:19
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman13:22
xG 0.83–0.17 (83%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Girardi – McDonagh12:31
xG 0.99–0.54 (64%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh2:56
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).