Sun, Mar 18, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 213 | 117 | 19 | 439 |
| NYI | 06 | 211 | 112 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:50CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Joakim Nordstrom, Victor Rask · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 4:44CARLee StempniakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 10:29NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Ryan Pulock, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 12:22NYIAnders LeePPAssists: John Tavares, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–2
- P2 14:04CARVictor RaskAssists: Joakim Nordstrom, Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 8:05NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Josh Bailey, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 13:11CARTrevor van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:09CARJustin Williams: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:05NYIJordan Eberle: Holding2 min
- P2 7:23NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:12CARDerek Ryan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:04NYINick Leddy: Holding2 min
- P3 7:24CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:52CARBrett Pesce: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:52NYIJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Skinner – Ryan9:45
xG 0.53–0.18 (74%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Nordstrom – Rask – Di Giuseppe6:47
xG 0.49–0.25 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Williams – Teravainen – Aho11:08
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Staal – McGinn – Lindholm9:16
xG 0.33–0.33 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Fleury13:25
xG 0.51–0.35 (60%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Slavin – Pesce12:30
xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Faulk – Dahlbeck13:44
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Cizikas – Wagner7:54
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Eberle – Barzal – Beauvillier8:41
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – Tavares – Barzal3:35
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Ladd – Nelson – Fritz6:51
xG 0.08–0.12 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pelech – Aho12:15
xG 0.27–0.26 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Hickey – Pulock14:58
xG 0.48–0.77 (38%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Leddy16:38
xG 0.21–0.71 (23%)attempts 8–19goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).