Sun, Mar 18, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 3, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 17 | 213 | 328 |
| PHI | 09 | 314 | 312 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:15PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 15:08WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Travis Boyd, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 18:19PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 19:41PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Radko Gudas, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 1:37PHIWayne SimmondsGWGAssists: Robert Hagg, Radko Gudas · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–4
- P3 10:31WSHChandler StephensonAssists: Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 14:27PHIWayne SimmondsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 16:07WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 19:22PHIJakub VoracekENAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:33WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P1 14:48WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:39PHISean Couturier: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:43PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:47WSHAndre Burakovsky: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 2:49PHIIvan Provorov: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:42PHIIvan Provorov: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:42WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:41PHITravis Konecny: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:41WSHT.J. Oshie: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky8:36
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson7:05
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson2:28
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Beagle – Stephenson – Vrana2:18
xG 0.11–0.03 (78%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKempny – Jerabek7:07
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
- Niskanen – Kempny2:19
xG 0.14–0.05 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov16:48
xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Lindblom – Patrick9:10
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Weal – Read – Laughton2:17
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal6:21
xG 0.39–0.28 (59%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Giroux – Couturier – Raffl4:38
xG 0.23–0.21 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Provorov2:09
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov9:42
xG 0.67–0.47 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Provorov2:06
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).