Mon, Mar 19, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Nashville Predators 4, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 211 | 211 | 432 |
| BUF | 013 | 014 | 08 | 035 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:29NSHMike FisherGWGAssists: Scott Hartnell, Miikka Salomaki · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 17:03NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P3 16:09NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–0
- P3 19:36NSHRyan HartmanAssists: Alexei Emelin, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–0
Penalties (2)
- P1 7:02NSHMattias Ekholm: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:49NSHAlexei Emelin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:59
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Fisher – Hartnell – Salomaki10:10
xG 0.23–0.12 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Bonino – Sissons – Hartman12:01
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala11:56
xG 0.83–0.79 (51%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Josi2:59
xG 0.54–0.06 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 2–0
- Ellis – Ekholm19:08
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Josi – Bitetto13:34
xG 0.91–0.54 (63%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Pouliot – Eichel11:29
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Wilson – Reinhart13:55
xG 0.43–0.53 (45%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Okposo – Nolan – Larsson10:23
xG 0.12–0.41 (22%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Bailey – Baptiste – Rodrigues8:46
xG 0.20–0.54 (27%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Guhle13:12
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Beaulieu – Nelson14:36
xG 0.39–0.71 (35%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Guhle – Nelson2:58
xG 0.09–0.50 (16%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).