Mon, Mar 19, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 2, Montréal Canadiens 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 019 | 112 | 240 |
| MTL | 07 | 09 | 012 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:31FLAAaron EkbladGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 6:23FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Mark Pysyk, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 6:04MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Instigator2 min
- P1 6:04MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:04MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Misconduct10 min
- P1 6:04FLAAaron Ekblad: Elbowing2 min
- P1 6:04FLAAaron Ekblad: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:07MTLMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:07FLAAlexander Petrovic: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:02MTLNikita Scherbak: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:47FLAJared McCann: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:11FLAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:43FLAFrank Vatrano: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:35MTLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:40FLAJamie McGinn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:42FLAAlexander Petrovic: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against de la Rose
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov10:52
xG 1.00–0.10 (91%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Malgin9:45
xG 0.57–0.07 (90%)attempts 23–6goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – McGinn – Sceviour4:29
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- McCann – Vatrano – Mamin8:34
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad11:44
xG 0.99–0.11 (90%)attempts 24–5goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Weegar10:12
xG 0.60–0.09 (87%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson13:12
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Shaw – Carr – Scherbak7:50
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Hudon – McCarron4:55
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
- Byron – Gallagher – Drouin7:49
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – de la Rose – Lehkonen8:06
xG 0.06–0.27 (18%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Reilly11:55
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 10–16goals 0–2
- Alzner – Juulsen14:43
xG 0.16–0.61 (20%)attempts 9–21goals 0–0
- Benn – Lernout13:35
xG 0.21–0.90 (19%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).