Mon, Mar 19, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Los Angeles Kings 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 19 | 18 | 111 | 12 | 430 |
| MIN | 09 | 211 | 17 | 00 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:47LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 6:21LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Jake Muzzin, Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 12:08MINZach PariseAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Murphy · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 19:04MINEric StaalAssists: Ryan Suter, Mathew Dumba · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 17:29MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Jason Zucker, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 19:13LAKDustin BrownAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 4:26LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Adrian Kempe, Jonathan Quick · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:01LAKTanner Pearson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:29MINZach Parise: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:13MINRyan Suter: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:41MINNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:41LAKDerek Forbort: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestClifford – Toffoli – Kempe2:59
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Rieder13:54
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson2:51
xG 0.01–0.02 (42%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Pearson – Kempe4:42
xG 0.06–0.09 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Folin10:27
xG 0.20–0.13 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty4:20
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Doughty – Forbort11:45
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Niederreiter6:58
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Zucker – Coyle4:04
xG 0.11–0.04 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Winnik – Foligno – Eriksson Ek3:03
xG 0.10–0.03 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Ennis – Coyle6:54
xG 0.09–0.07 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Murphy16:23
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Suter – Dumba20:37
xG 0.54–0.53 (50%)attempts 18–18goals 2–1
- Prosser – Seeler13:06
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).