Tue, Mar 20, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 015 | 112 | 010 | 137 |
| NYI | 213 | 017 | 210 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 10:33NYIAdam PelechGWGAssists: Tanner Fritz, Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 17:14PITConor ShearyAssists: Phil Kessel, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 5:41NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Mathew Barzal, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–3
- P3 17:31NYIJordan EberleENAssists: John Tavares, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:18PITOlli Maatta: Holding2 min
- P1 11:52PITJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min
- P1 13:03NYIAnders Lee: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:03PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:47PITPatric Hornqvist: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:35PITBrian Dumoulin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:45NYIRyan Pulock: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:28PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestSheahan – Kuhnhackl – Jooris4:12
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Sheary9:05
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Kessel2:46
xG 0.13–0.13 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin11:09
xG 0.90–0.96 (48%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin16:14
xG 1.05–0.69 (60%)attempts 17–12goals 1–2
- Maatta – Ruhwedel15:24
xG 0.93–0.78 (54%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Schultz – Oleksiak14:46
xG 0.81–1.15 (41%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Nelson – Fritz10:45
xG 0.88–0.18 (83%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Eberle – Barzal – Beauvillier9:38
xG 0.80–0.65 (55%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee10:22
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- Cizikas – Wagner – Johnston7:35
xG 0.19–0.78 (19%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Pulock12:50
xG 1.18–0.42 (74%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Pelech15:17
xG 0.91–0.80 (53%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy17:04
xG 0.43–1.45 (23%)attempts 8–27goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).