Tue, Mar 20, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 112 | 112 | 37 | 531 |
| NYR | 09 | 19 | 214 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:05CBJAlexander WennbergAssists: Thomas Vanek, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 9:28CBJArtemi PanarinAssists: Ian Cole, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 13:44NYRKevin HayesSHAssists: Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 4:05CBJMarkus NutivaaraAssists: Artemi Panarin, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 7:16NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 11:19CBJArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
- P3 18:08NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Brady Skjei, Ryan Sproul · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 19:58CBJArtemi PanarinENAssists: Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.72 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 10:07NYRNeal Pionk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:02NYRPaul Carey: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:45CBJMarkus Nutivaara: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:32CBJArtemi Panarin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:36CBJBoone Jenner: Holding2 min
- P3 16:54CBJThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Foligno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Panarin10:23
xG 0.80–0.20 (80%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Bjorkstrand – Milano – Dubois10:45
xG 0.86–0.29 (75%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Letestu – Calvert – Sedlak8:32
xG 0.69–0.32 (68%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Vanek – Jenner – Wennberg10:06
xG 0.33–0.36 (47%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Nutivaara12:09
xG 1.08–0.39 (74%)attempts 19–12goals 2–0
- Cole – Savard16:06
xG 1.05–0.39 (73%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Murray – Werenski16:24
xG 0.58–0.36 (61%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Fast – Zibanejad10:05
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- McLeod – Desharnais – Carey5:23
xG 0.03–0.08 (26%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Vesey – Buchnevich7:54
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Spooner – Hayes13:42
xG 0.22–0.99 (19%)attempts 8–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Sproul – Skjei18:35
xG 0.58–0.86 (40%)attempts 22–20goals 0–0
- O'Gara – Gilmour12:45
xG 0.19–0.84 (18%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Staal – Pionk12:54
xG 0.11–1.28 (8%)attempts 8–16goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).