Tue, Mar 20, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Dallas Stars 3, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 14 | 213 | 010 | 327 |
| WSH | 05 | 316 | 111 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:04DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 4:07WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Lars Eller, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 5:32WSHMatt NiskanenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 11:48DALAlexander RadulovAssists: John Klingberg, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 13:41WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 18:15DALJamie BennUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 15:01WSHJohn CarlsonGWGAssists: Lars Eller, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:31DALAlexander Radulov: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:12WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:00WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:50WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P2 9:43WSHMichal Kempny: Interference2 min
- P2 13:22DALAlexander Radulov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 13:48WSHBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:48DALRadek Faksa: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:02DALAlexander Radulov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Faksa – Janmark12:07
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Benn – Pitlick – Seguin4:39
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Benn – Seguin – Elie5:12
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Roussel – Shore – Elie4:35
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Pateryn13:54
xG 0.55–0.20 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Johns – Honka10:40
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Johns – Lindell2:44
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson13:45
xG 0.83–0.34 (71%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Connolly – Boyd – Vrana5:33
xG 0.32–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Oshie – Eller – Burakovsky7:38
xG 0.16–0.15 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Oshie – Beagle – Burakovsky2:32
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Djoos7:29
xG 0.55–0.09 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Djoos – Kempny2:32
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Carlson – Kempny12:52
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).