Tue, Mar 20, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Edmonton Oilers 7, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 313 | 310 | 17 | 730 |
| CAR | 215 | 112 | 07 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:30CARBrock McGinnUnassisted · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 4:53EDMDrake CaggiulaAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Pontus Aberg · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 6:53EDMMatt BenningAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 9:17EDMRyan StromeUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P1 14:54CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 1:32EDMPontus AbergGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
- P2 4:12CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Sebastian Aho, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.08 xG4–3
- P2 11:54EDMYohann AuvituAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Pontus Aberg · Snap, 0.11 xG5–3
- P2 15:37EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Yohann Auvitu · Slap, 0.06 xG6–3
- P3 13:06EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Milan Lucic, Ryan Strome · Backhand, 0.12 xG7–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:12EDMIiro Pakarinen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 5:57CARKlas Dahlbeck: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:00EDMDrake Caggiula: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Strome – Puljujarvi10:53
xG 1.45–0.37 (80%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Aberg – Draisaitl – Caggiula12:29
xG 0.96–0.14 (88%)attempts 13–6goals 3–0
- Pakarinen – Khaira – Slepyshev9:43
xG 0.16–0.07 (68%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Rattie – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid14:30
xG 0.93–0.97 (49%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenning – Auvitu12:22
xG 1.88–0.45 (81%)attempts 17–9goals 2–1
- Russell – Bear11:04
xG 0.87–0.34 (72%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Larsson – Auvitu2:02
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 2–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Teravainen – Aho11:31
xG 1.03–0.48 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Rask – Di Giuseppe – Zykov9:19
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Williams – McGinn – Lindholm8:52
xG 0.37–0.88 (30%)attempts 8–10goals 1–3
- Stempniak – Skinner – Ryan12:07
xG 0.21–0.87 (19%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce16:22
xG 1.27–0.80 (61%)attempts 23–7goals 0–1
- Faulk – Fleury7:29
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Dahlbeck – van Riemsdyk6:03
xG 0.07–0.22 (25%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).