Tue, Mar 20, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 7, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 213 | 412 | 114 | 739 |
| OTT | 111 | 117 | 07 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36FLAColton SceviourAssists: Mark Pysyk, Micheal Haley · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 12:48OTTPatrick SieloffAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Tom Pyatt · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 15:56FLAKeith YandleAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 2:15FLAEvgenii DadonovGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Nick Bjugstad · Slap, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 7:19FLAJared McCannAssists: Jamie McGinn · Snap, 0.27 xG4–1
- P2 13:52OTTMarian GaborikUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
- P2 16:13FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Keith Yandle, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
- P2 17:04FLANick BjugstadAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–2
- P3 12:08FLAJamie McGinnAssists: Frank Vatrano, Jared McCann · Backhand, 0.01 xG7–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:06FLAMicheal Haley: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:14OTTMarian Gaborik: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:35FLAMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov11:19
xG 0.81–0.37 (69%)attempts 14–17goals 2–1
- McGinn – McCann – Vatrano9:41
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 3–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley11:02
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Malgin11:53
xG 0.57–0.63 (48%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad14:55
xG 1.12–0.70 (62%)attempts 21–25goals 3–2
- Weegar – McCoshen14:28
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Matheson19:53
xG 0.77–0.78 (50%)attempts 24–20goals 2–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Duchene7:23
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Paajarvi7:53
xG 0.46–0.26 (65%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Gaborik – O'Brien – McCormick3:09
xG 0.05–0.01 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 1–1
- Ryan – Duchene – Chlapik4:08
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Claesson6:08
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Claesson – Harpur2:50
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ceci – Harpur2:47
xG 0.08–0.03 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).