Tue, Mar 20, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 5, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 016 | 315 | 29 | 540 |
| CHI | 111 | 015 | 019 | 145 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:45CHIBrent SeabrookPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 2:07COLAlexander KerfootPPAssists: Colin Wilson, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 5:01COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 12:40COLTyson BarriePPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 18:04COLErik JohnsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.43 xG4–1
- P3 19:03COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Gabriel Bourque, David Warsofsky · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:15COLErik Johnson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:51CHIAndreas Martinsen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:51CHIDavid Kampf: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:10CHIJohn Hayden: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:25COLTyson Barrie: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:50COLTyson Jost: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:56COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Bourque – Kerfoot4:14
xG 0.99–0.20 (83%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Andrighetto – Compher – Jost8:49
xG 0.55–0.03 (94%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Comeau – Nieto – Toninato8:26
xG 0.27–0.53 (34%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:04
xG 0.55–1.33 (29%)attempts 13–25goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Zadorov6:55
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Johnson – Barrie8:00
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nemeth2:13
xG 0.08–0.01 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHinostroza – Schmaltz – Martinsen7:51
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Jurco – DeBrincat10:42
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Hinostroza3:21
xG 0.04–0.20 (16%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Saad10:11
xG 0.35–0.58 (37%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Rutta16:14
xG 1.17–0.60 (66%)attempts 27–14goals 0–1
- Murphy – Gustafsson2:16
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Murphy – Oesterle13:21
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).