Tue, Mar 20, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Vancouver Canucks 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 07 | 011 | 112 | 130 |
| VGK | 315 | 17 | 06 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:56VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson, Brayden McNabb · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 4:53VGKCody EakinGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch · Deflected, 0.24 xG0–2
- P1 19:27VGKPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Tomas Nosek, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 14:21VGKTomas TatarAssists: Erik Haula, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 8:27VANBrandon SutterAssists: Derrick Pouliot, Alex Biega · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:35VANMichael Del Zotto: Interference2 min
- P2 7:51VANJake Virtanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:20VGKPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:32VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Boucher – Goldobin3:36
xG 0.51–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Jokinen6:06
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Sutter – Archibald – Virtanen6:21
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Dowd – Virtanen3:00
xG 0.03–0.02 (65%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev16:36
xG 0.70–0.25 (74%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Stecher15:51
xG 0.80–0.54 (60%)attempts 24–11goals 1–0
- Biega – Pouliot12:20
xG 0.57–0.48 (54%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Karlsson – Marchessault12:28
xG 0.50–0.12 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Eakin – Carpenter – Tuch12:07
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula12:08
xG 0.36–0.54 (40%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Reaves – Bellemare – Nosek8:14
xG 0.43–0.76 (36%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt13:32
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Merrill – Miller13:52
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Engelland – Theodore16:14
xG 0.67–0.66 (50%)attempts 11–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).